If the Bengals are wondering how to get back on track after two straight losses, all they need to do is ask the fantasy football geeks who drafted Rudi Johnson.
The answer would come quickly, and probably even a little bitterly: Feed Rudi!
Johnson averaged 24 carries, 96 yards and a touchdown in the Bengals' 3-0 start. In their two losses since, he's only had 16 carries and fewer than 60 yards a game.
The trend is hardly new. The Bengals have won 12 straight when Johnson gets 20 carries _ including a 9-0 record last year. They're 17-5 when he hits the magical 20 mark over the past three seasons, 5-10 when he doesn't.
Of course, fantasy geeks aren't merely concerned with the Bengals' well-being. There's something in it for us, too. Johnson has scored 22 of his 28 touchdowns the past three seasons in games when he carried 20 or more times.
As you try to stop your head from spinning after reading all those numbers, here are some players to start in Week 7, some to avoid, and a few long shots who just may pan out:
A SAFE BET
_ You can safely start Carolina's Jake Delhomme every week now that he's recorded his first 300-yard game and the Panthers are 4-0 with Steve Smith in the lineup. (I say this as one of the dolts who benched him out of fear of the Ravens' defence.)
_ Jacksonville's Byron Leftwich has the greatest statistic of all on his side: The Texans are on the schedule. Leftwich has five TDs in his last two games. Houston, meanwhile, isn't very good at football.
_ The Dallas defence has been tough against bad quarterbacks but kind of squishy against good ones. And the visiting Giants' Eli Manning is a good one. (There's also this oddball stat in Manning's favour: He has 8 TDs on the road, 3 at home.)
_ If fantasy football has done nothing else in this world, it has made a Lions-Jets game worth watching. So start Detroit's Jon Kitna and the Jets' Chad Pennington, then sit back and take in this aesthetically disturbing matchup.
_ After slicing through Chicago's frightful defence, Matt Leinart of Arizona gets the feeble Oakland defence. Or, in terms the rookie's more used to, this is sort of like playing Long Beach State the week after Notre Dame.
TAKE A SHOT
_ Don't laugh, but Miami's Joey Harrington could be a decent start while so many real quarterbacks are on the bye week. He had a TD and 266 yards last week and faces Green Bay's NFL-worst pass defence.
BACK AWAY SLOWLY AND NOBODY GETS HURT
Please, in the name of Erik Wilhelm, don't start these guys:
_ David Carr has maintained a decent QB rating thanks to his crisp execution of the Texans' greatest weapon, the four-yard completion. Now even those are going haywire and you can't count on him for his usual garbage-time points.
_ Seattle's Matt Hasselbeck has eight touchdowns in his last two games against teams not from Chicago, but he faces a Vikings defence that's only allowed three TD passes. (There's also this fun but meaningless stat: Seattle has five field goals, no TDs against the NFC North.)
_ It's one thing if you're Bruce Gradkowski and you do OK against the Saints and Bengals. But the wacky blitzing of the Eagles is probably too much for everyone's favorite rookie from Toledo.
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RUNNING BACKS
ALL DAY LONG
_ Jacksonville's Fred Taylor had a week to rest, and he'll get even more rest in the second half this week after piling up big numbers against Houston. He had 110 yards and a touchdown last week, and also went over 100 with a score last time he played the Texans.
_ Maybe the Redskins will realize they should take the ball out of their 50-year-old quarterback's hands and give it to young and electrifying runner Clinton Portis. They are playing the NFL's worst rushing defence in Indianapolis, after all.
_ Willie Parker of the Steelers should be among the numerous players rushing for 100 yards in the Pittsburgh-Atlanta game, which may as well be set in the 1930s since no one's going to bother with that newfangled forward pass.
_ The Giants' Tiki Barber has scored a TD or run for 100 yards in three of his last four against Dallas, though his refusal to enter the end zone this season is concerning.
_ Detroit's Kevin Jones is tough to figure. He's coming off his first 100-yard game, which came right after an 8-yard rushing game. He's facing the Jets, though, who can make an eight-yard rusher look good and have allowed a whopping 12 TD runs.
HE COULD FIND A SEAM
_ Arizona's Edgerrin James should rebound from his embarrassing 55-yard game on 36 carries last week when he faces the hapless Raiders. He probably won't even need 60 carries to hit 100 yards.
RED FLAGS
_ Seattle's Maurice Morris was unimpressive against an often-soft Rams, so should be even less effective against the Vikings' fourth-ranked run defence. (But hang on to him until Shaun Alexander proves he's back for good.)
_ Keep Cleveland's Reuben Droughns on the bench against the Denver defence that has only given up one TD all year.
_ At this point in the season, do you really need me to tell you to stop playing Lamont Jordan and all other Raiders?
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WIDE RECEIVERS
THROW HIM THE DARN BALL!
_ Cincinnati's T.J. Houshmandzadeh has been the Bengals' top receiver the past three weeks, averaging 97 yards and a TD. He faces a Carolina defence that actually let Kyle Boller throw three touchdowns.
_ Reggie Williams has emerged as Jacksonville's top receiving threat, with three touchdowns in his last two games. Plus, you really must start every Jag you can against the Texans' NFL-worst defence and its open-door policy to the end zone.
_ The problem when you're blitz happy like the Eagles is you sometimes give up the big play, so Tampa Bay's Joey Galloway could rack up points when Gradkowski's not getting flattened. Galloway's averaging about five catches and 80 yards with the rookie starting.
_ Packers rookie Greg Jennings has scored in three of his last four games and has two 100-yard outings. He's playing against a pretty bad Miami team, too.
_ Didn't Buffalo used to have a good defence? Well, the Bills don't anymore, and Patriots receiver Doug Gabriel certainly has figured out his new offence by now.
MAYBE THROW HIM THE DARN BALL
_ Eric Parker has become Philip Rivers' security blanket in San Diego with 12 catches the past two weeks, and the Chargers may actually have to pass when they visit Kansas City.
SHOW HIM THE DARN BENCH!
_ Javon Walker is good, big and fast, but the Broncos aren't all that interested in throwing the ball these days. Jake Plummer hasn't even hit 110 yards the past two weeks, and he only has three touchdowns this year.
_ Likewise, consider benching Washington's Santana Moss simply because there's no reason to throw the ball against the Colts' atrocious run defence.
_ The glow of that 137-yard, two-TD game has worn off for the Giants' Amani Toomer. Return him to the bench now that he's returned to his 3-catch-a-game self.
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FREE AGENT SHOPPING LIST
Pick these guys up if they're available in your league:
Philip Rivers of San Diego (334 yards passing, 2 TDs), Joe Horn of New Orleans (110 yards, 2 TDs), Mark Clayton of Baltimore (101 yards, 2 TDs), Eric Parker of San Diego (7 catches, 88 yards), Gradkowski (2 TDs).
WHAT DO I KNOW?
Here's the best and worst of last week's projections:
Big Hits: I predicted success for Philip Rivers, Ben Roethlisberger (first 2 TDs of the year), Terrell Owens (3 touchdowns), Laveranues Coles (106 yards receiving, 2 TDs) and Ronnie Brown (127 yards rushing, TD).
Big Misses: I expected big things from Rudi Johnson (52 yards rushing) and Plummer (102 yards passing). I predicted failure for Travis Henry (178 yards, TD) and Anquan Boldin (136 yards receiving, TD). I also thought Rex Grossman would find Bernard Berrian (not to mention the broad side of a barn).
